Sunday, May 25, 2008

Math Update

I haven't done a delegate count for a while (okay, I have done nothing for a while, but get off my back!) so here are the latest numbers:

Super Delegate Count:
Obama 321
Clinton 280

Total Delegate Count:
Obama 1970
Clinton 1780

Total Popular Vote:
Obama 16,685,941 (+458,427)
Clinton 16,227,514

These numbers are not counting Florida and Michigan, but even if those states get some of their delegates, they are likely to be divided between Obama and Hillary, not making a big change in the numbers and they way they stand.

The magic number is 2026. That is the number of delegates that is necessary for a nomination. Only 57 delegates away, Barack could easily clench that with big wins in the final three primaries. Not to mention the still 175 uncommitted super delegates.

But don't worry Hillary, you still have a chance. Let's make that math work. You currently have 1780 delegates. If you can convince all 175 uncommitted super delegates to vote for you that would bring your total to 1955. I know that you can do this with all the really intelligent, sensitive things that have been coming out of your mouth lately. Then, Hillary you need to win all the remaining primaries. Remember that is Puerto Rico, South Dakota, and Montana. With all 86 remaining primary delegates, you can win with 15 delegates to spare!

Reality Check - It ain't gonna happen. Maybe we should bring in some statistics and probability.....

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